- Magkakaroon ba ng mga bagyo: 1-3 sa panahon ng bagyo sa Atlantiko ng 2026?97¢97%
- Magkakaroon ba ng bilang ng mga bagyo: 4-6 sa panahon ng Atlantic Hurricane Season ng 2026?2¢2%
- Magkakaroon ba ng bagyong pinangalanang 7+ sa panahon ng Atlantic Hurricane Season ng 2026?<1¢<1%
Strong El Niño-driven wind shear has kept Atlantic hurricane formation minimal through mid-October 2026, leaving only one hurricane (Isaias) so far and supporting the market’s overwhelming 97.6% implied probability on a 1–3 total. The season produced nine named storms by October 15, but eight remained tropical storms amid persistently high vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air tied to a strong super El Niño. Isaias became the first and only hurricane on October 7–8 in the Gulf of Mexico—the latest first hurricane in the satellite era—and briefly reached major (Category 3) strength before landfall. Official National Hurricane Center tracking and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) stand at just 18 units, roughly 83% below the 1991–2020 average. Historical analogs from prior super El Niño years show very low odds of additional hurricanes after early October, with the season typically winding down quickly. The November window remains open, but model consensus and steering patterns favor limited development. A realistic challenge to the 1–3 range would require an unusually favorable late-season window—such as reduced shear coinciding with a Gulf or western Caribbean disturbance—yet current conditions and climatology make even a second hurricane unlikely.
Mga panuntunan
Maresolba ang market na ito batay sa bilang ng mga bagyong ikinategorya bilang hurricane sa Atlantic mula nang gawin ang market hanggang Nobyembre 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Kung walang bagyong ikinategorya bilang hurricane sa Atlantic sa tinukoy na takdang panahon, maresolba ang market na ito sa "0". Ang hurricane ay isang tropical cyclone na may pinakamataas na tuloy-tuloy na hangin na 74 mph o higit pa (Kategorya 1 o mas mataas sa Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), gaya ng inilalarawan sa https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. Maaaring maresolba ang market na ito batay sa paunang advisory ng NHC na nag-uulat ng kuwalipikadong hurricane, anuman ang anumang kasunod na advisory, pagbawi, rebisyon ng best track, o muling pagsusuri na nagpapababa sa tindi ng bagyong iyon. Tutukuyin ang opisyal na bilang batay sa mga advisory ng NHC (nhc.noaa.gov).
Awtomatikong salin. Kapag may alitan, ang orihinal ang masusunod.