- Houthis capture Taiz city by October 31?13¢13%
- Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?37¢37%
- Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?43¢43%
Yemen’s government forces, backed by Saudi-led coalition airstrikes, launched Operation Dawn of Yemen in early October 2026 to counter Houthi territorial gains along the Red Sea coast and around Taiz governorate. The Iran-backed Houthis have encircled the city of Taiz by seizing key supply routes south toward Aden, tightening a siege that has displaced over 120,000 people and cut off fuel, food, and medicine. Intense clashes continue on multiple fronts including Jabal Han, al-Aqroud, and al-Misrakh, with both sides reporting advances, repelled assaults, and heavy casualties. Government forces claim to have retaken positions and inflicted significant losses on Houthi fighters and equipment in recent days, while the Houthis seek to consolidate their encirclement and pressure the city through artillery and infiltration attempts. The outcome hinges on whether sustained government counteroffensives can reopen access routes or if Houthi reinforcements from the north can overcome defensive lines around this strategically vital highland hub.
Mga panuntunan
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis capture Taiz, Yemen between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. The Houthis will be considered to have captured Taiz if the Houthis have established primary military control over Al-Qahira Castle (Cairo Castle) in Taiz city. The Houthis having established primary military control over an area of Taiz city encompassing Al-Qahira Castle will be sufficient, unless credible reporting indicates the castle itself remains outside Houthi control. Primary military control must be clearly demonstrated by this market’s resolution sources to qualify. Control which is credibly contested or disputed, or not clearly evidenced, will not qualify. Temporary raids, infiltration, isolated incursions, special operations, bombardment, shelling, sabotage, siege or encirclement of the city, or temporary disruption of government activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of capture will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual Houthi control has been established. If the occurrence or timing of a potentially qualifying capture cannot be determined on the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market may remain open for three calendar days (ET) after the specified date. If Houthi control as defined above is not confirmed by this market’s resolution sources by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Only control established on or before the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, will be considered. The primary resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and photo or video evidence of Houthi control.