- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on September 4?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C or higher on September 4?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on September 4?31¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on September 4?41¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on September 4?17¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on September 4?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on September 4?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on September 4?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on September 4?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles point to clearing skies over Wuhan on September 4 after scattered rain on September 3, supporting daytime heating under moderate northerly winds and low humidity around 55-60%. This setup favors a daily maximum in the 30–32 °C range, with 31 °C emerging as the modal outcome across runs due to expected peak insolation in the early afternoon. Minor model spread arises from timing of cloud dissipation and boundary-layer mixing, keeping lower probabilities attached to 29 °C or 33 °C thresholds. Trader consensus aligns with this narrow band of official guidance, reflecting the limited upside potential from residual moisture and the low chance of significant deviation before resolution.