- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C or below on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on September 5?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on September 5?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on September 5?12¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on September 5?46¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on September 5?31¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on September 5?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on September 5?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C or higher on September 5?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models from Environment Canada and major ensembles position 24°C as the most likely daily high for Toronto on September 5, with 25°C a close second, reflecting a stable warm-air mass under weak high pressure and light southerly flow. Recent runs show minimal spread around these values, consistent with late-summer climatology where average highs reach the low-to-mid 20s; stronger ridging or delayed cooling would be required to push readings toward 26°C or above. Traders have incorporated the latest 00Z and 12Z guidance, which indicate only modest uncertainty from boundary-layer mixing and urban heat effects, keeping lower outcomes such as 23°C or below at reduced implied probability. Updated surface observations and short-range guidance through the afternoon will further refine resolution.