- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on September 9?27¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on September 9?31¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on September 9?17¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on September 9?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on September 9?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C or higher on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or below on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 9?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 9?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on September 9?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on September 9?12¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other models indicate Tokyo will see mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers or thunderstorms on September 9, driven by southerly flow and elevated humidity that favors convective activity. These conditions are expected to restrict daytime heating and cap the maximum temperature, producing market-implied odds clustered tightly around 30–32°C. Model differences in the exact timing, coverage, and intensity of precipitation create the narrow spread between leading outcomes, while climatological norms near 28.6°C provide baseline context. Updated JMA guidance and afternoon model runs remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift trader sentiment ahead of resolution.