- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C or below on September 8?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on September 8?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on September 8?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on September 8?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on September 8?17¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on September 8?36¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on September 8?25¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on September 8?8¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on September 8?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on September 8?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or higher on September 8?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from sources like the Met Office, Yr.no, and regional models indicate a maximum temperature near 20°C for São Paulo on September 8, 2026, aligning with the market's leading 20°C outcome at 35% implied probability. Cooler-than-average conditions stem from a lingering cold front and southeasterly flow, which have brought increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and suppressed daytime heating over the past 48 hours. Current observations on September 7 show highs limited to around 13–18°C amid overcast skies and elevated humidity, setting a baseline that limits rapid warming. September climatology typically features average highs near 24–25°C as spring progresses, yet the present synoptic pattern—marked by stable high pressure to the south and persistent marine influence—favors modest recovery. Ensemble guidance shows afternoon peaks clustering between 19–21°C, with limited upside from partial clearing. Traders appear to weigh the narrow uncertainty band in short-range models, where small shifts in cloud timing or wind could nudge the daily maximum by 1–2°C, explaining the concentrated probabilities on 19–21°C while assigning minimal weight to extremes above 23°C or below 18°C. Updated model runs and official INMET briefings ahead of the 24-hour window remain the key near-term catalysts.