- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on September 4?47¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on September 4?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on September 4?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on September 4?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C or higher on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or below on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on September 4?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on September 4?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on September 4?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on September 4?15¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Latest meteorological guidance points to a high of 27–31 °C in São Paulo on 4 September, with model consensus centering near 28–30 °C. Stable high-pressure conditions and northerly to northwesterly flow are allowing daytime warming under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies before a cold front arrives on 5 September. Official outlooks from Climatempo and other agencies project a metropolitan maximum around 27 °C, while some global models reach 31 °C in the interior or under stronger insolation. The approaching polar air mass and associated cloud increase after Friday are expected to cap further warming, keeping the distribution of possible daily maxima tightly clustered. Traders appear to be weighting the most recent high-resolution runs and historical analogs for early-September warm spells, resulting in the heaviest implied probability on 29 °C. Updated model guidance and any late-day observational adjustments from INMET will be the key near-term drivers of shifts in these odds.