- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 5?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on September 5?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 5?24¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on September 5?61¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on September 5?11¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on September 5?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 88°F or higher on September 5?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Official National Weather Service forecasts for New York City on September 5 point to a sunny high near 81°F amid northerly flow following recent frontal passage, establishing the primary driver behind the 59.5% market-implied probability on 80-81°F. Multiple model runs and agency guidance converge on this range, with lighter winds and clear conditions limiting afternoon heating compared to the prior day's mid-80s readings. Historical early-September baselines near 80°F provide context, while the tight clustering of 78-79°F and 82-83°F outcomes at 24% and 11% reflects residual forecast uncertainty in peak timing and boundary-layer mixing. Updated model guidance and evening observations on September 4 could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.