- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C or below on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on September 4?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on September 4?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on September 4?18¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on September 4?51¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on September 4?18¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on September 4?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or higher on September 4?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from global models including GFS and ECMWF consensus place Moscow’s September 4 daytime maximum near 21 °C under southwesterly flow that advects mild air while keeping skies partly cloudy and limiting convective cooling. Official outlooks from Russia’s Hydrometeorological Center and regional stations align with this range, with hourly guidance peaking between 20–22 °C and only light or isolated precipitation expected. Historical early-September normals near 18–19 °C provide context for the modest positive anomaly. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 21 °C (50.5 %), 20 °C (18 %), and 22 °C (18 %) reflects this model agreement and the low likelihood of rapid synoptic shifts before the 24-hour observation window closes. Traders will monitor the next model runs and any surface observations for minor adjustments ahead of resolution.