- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C or higher on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C or below on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on September 3?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on September 3?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on September 3?33¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on September 3?52¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on September 3?10¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on September 3?1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and international models (GFS) converge on a daytime high of 19–22°C in Moscow on September 3, 2026, with scattered showers, thunderstorms, and southwesterly winds of 3–5 m/s moderating peak values under partly cloudy skies and ~760 mmHg pressure. This aligns closely with the September climatological average high of 19°C while accounting for the passage of a mild Atlantic air mass that followed warmer conditions on September 2. The 51% market-implied probability on 20°C and 34.5% on 19°C reflect trader weighting of ensemble outputs favoring a maximum near or just above the seasonal norm, tempered by precipitation likelihood that limits further warming. Updated model runs and surface observations throughout the day will determine final resolution within these narrow thresholds.