- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C or below on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on September 4?57¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on September 4?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on September 4?26¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on September 4?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 43°C or higher on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on September 4?10¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from models including GFS and regional guidance point to a strong high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula delivering clear skies, light winds, and strong insolation for Madrid on September 4, supporting afternoon highs near 38–39 °C under the current heatwave pattern. Official AEMET outlooks and ensemble runs cluster around these values, exceeding the long-term average high of 29 °C while remaining below the 2016 record of 37 °C for the date. Trader consensus favoring 39 °C (57 % implied probability) reflects this model agreement, with modest tail risk for 40 °C if boundary-layer mixing or urban heat effects intensify; fresh model updates tonight will further constrain resolution criteria for the daily maximum.