- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 81°F or below on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on September 3?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on September 3?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on September 3?21¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on September 3?37¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on September 3?26¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on September 3?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on September 3?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on September 3?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 100°F or higher on September 3?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high atmospheric moisture are the dominant factors capping Houston's daily maximum temperature on September 3, 2026, in the upper 80s to low 90s. Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and multiple models converge on highs near 89–93 °F, with a 40–60 % chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially after midday. These conditions limit solar heating and promote evaporative cooling, consistent with the market's heaviest trading on 88–89 °F (37 %) and 90–91 °F (26.5 %). Houston’s subtropical climate, proximity to the Gulf of Mexico, and urban heat-island effects normally support mid-90s readings in early September (climatological average high ≈ 91 °F). However, persistent southeast flow advecting humid air (dew points in the mid-70s) and increasing cloud cover have suppressed temperatures relative to the preceding hot, mostly dry days. Heat-index values remain elevated (105–108 °F), but the dry-bulb maximum is the resolution metric. Recent model runs and morning observations show no strong signal for clearing skies or stronger subsidence that would allow a push into the mid-90s, keeping the 92 °F+ tails at low single-digit implied probabilities. Updated National Weather Service briefings and hourly trends through the afternoon will be the key near-term catalysts for any last adjustments in trader positioning.