- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C or below on September 5?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on September 5?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on September 5?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on September 5?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on September 5?17¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on September 5?40¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on September 5?31¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on September 5?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on September 5?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C or higher on September 5?1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent model consensus from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international forecasts points to clear or partly cloudy conditions in Chengdu on September 5 under continued influence of the subtropical high, with light southerly winds and minimal precipitation risk supporting peak daytime heating near 32–34°C. This aligns with the market’s leading probabilities on 34°C and 35°C, reflecting trader assessment of modest warming from recent days when highs reached 34–35.6°C. Differentiation among 33–35°C outcomes hinges on small variations in model timing for any residual cloud cover, urban heat-island effects within the city, and exact insolation under the high-pressure regime. Historical September baselines are cooler, but the current early-month anomaly persists until the expected shift to rainier patterns later in the week. Updated official guidance from local meteorological stations will refine resolution criteria before the daily maximum is recorded.