- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C or below on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on September 4?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on September 4?23¢
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on September 4?46¢
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on September 4?23¢
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on September 4?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C or higher on September 4?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Strong southeasterly winds and clearing skies after Thursday's cold front and showers are driving the market toward a 19–20°C maximum for Cape Town on September 4. Official forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, show dry air advection, high pressure building, and peak afternoon readings clustered between 18–20°C under mostly clear conditions with gusts exceeding 30–40 km/h. This setup favors the observed 46% implied probability on 20°C and 23.5% on 19°C, consistent with climatological September maxima near 18°C but elevated by post-frontal warming. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread in latest model guidance against typical variability from local topography and wind strength, with minimal probability assigned to extremes outside 18–21°C.