- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on September 9?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on September 9?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on September 9?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on September 9?14¢
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on September 9?63¢
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on September 9?18¢
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on September 9?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C or higher on September 9?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a high near 27°C in Ankara on September 9 under clear skies and light northeasterly winds, following cooler conditions on September 7–8 with highs around 24–25°C. This aligns with September's climatological average high of 26–27°C and supports the market's strong 61.5% implied probability for 27°C. Recent model consensus shows limited variability, with some runs reaching 28°C, consistent with the 17.5% odds there, while 26°C holds 12.5%. Dry conditions and minimal cloud cover reduce uncertainty in daytime maxima, though minor steering or timing shifts could still influence the exact peak before resolution.