- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C or below on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on September 6?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on September 6?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on September 6?11¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on September 6?53¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on September 6?33¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on September 6?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or higher on September 6?2¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current forecasts for Amsterdam on September 6, 2026, center on a high near 22°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds and minimal precipitation risk. Multiple models, including GFS and ECMWF-derived guidance, indicate daytime maxima of 20–23°C, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on 22°C (52.5%) and 23°C (33.0%). This reflects a transitional early-September pattern: a stable high-pressure ridge suppressing strong advection while allowing modest surface heating under broken cloud cover. Recent observations show temperatures trending near or slightly below the 1991–2020 daily average high of ~20°C, with the prior days featuring light rain and westerly flow that moderated conditions. No major synoptic shifts—such as a warm front or enhanced insolation—are expected before the 6th, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around 21–23°C. Traders appear to be pricing the consensus range from official and ensemble guidance, with lower-probability tails (e.g., 24°C or 21°C) reflecting residual model spread and the inherent uncertainty in 48-hour temperature forecasts. Updated runs from KNMI or global centers ahead of the date could refine these implied probabilities.