This market will resolve according to the value of Elon Musk's net worth on August 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/), specifically the datapoint for the specified date, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Recent rebounds in SpaceX valuation and Tesla share prices have positioned Musk's net worth near $840 billion as of late August 2026, driving the strong 65% market-implied probability for the $800-900 billion range on August 31. His fortune remains heavily concentrated in roughly 11% of Tesla and 42% of SpaceX, making short-term movements in those equities the dominant swing factors. Following SpaceX's June IPO peak above $1 trillion, a sharp post-IPO decline in SpaceX shares triggered the largest recorded wealth drop, but recent stabilization has restored levels above $800 billion. With resolution just days away and limited scheduled catalysts before month-end, trader consensus reflects current valuations while acknowledging ongoing volatility in both companies' market caps.