Zambia Presidential Election Winner
- Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?93¢
- Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?8¢
- Will Fred M'membe win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?<1¢
Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Zambia on August 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Zambian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Zambian government sources, including the Electoral Commission of Zambia (www.elections.org.zm/).
Incumbent President Hakainde Hichilema of the United Party for National Development holds a commanding 93% implied probability in trader consensus for the August 13, 2026, Zambian presidential election, reflecting advantages of incumbency, a record of post-debt economic reforms, infrastructure initiatives, and consistent leads in available polling. Opposition consolidation behind Brian Mundubile of the Tonse Alliance has narrowed the field but remains fragmented across 14 candidates, including low-probability entrants like Fred M'membe of the Socialist Party. Hichilema's position draws from broad provincial support and policy continuity, though cost-of-living pressures, energy shortages, and campaign restrictions cited by rivals introduce variables. Late turnout shifts or disputes over results could still alter outcomes before final certification.