- US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens74¢
- US Open WTA: Completed Match: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens50¢
- Osaka vs. Mertens: Set 2 Games O/U 8.550¢
- Game Spread: Osaka (-4.5) vs Mertens (+4.5)48¢
- Set 2 Winner: Osaka vs Mertens67¢
- Set 1 Winner: Osaka vs Mertens68¢
- Osaka vs. Mertens: Set 1 Games O/U 10.525¢
- Osaka vs. Mertens: Match O/U 21.548¢
- Osaka vs. Mertens: Match O/U 23.540¢
- Osaka vs. Mertens: Set 2 Games O/U 10.550¢
- Osaka vs. Mertens: Match O/U 22.541¢
- Osaka vs. Mertens: Set 2 Games O/U 9.550¢
This market refers to the tennis match between Naomi Osaka and Elise Mertens in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Naomi Osaka' if Naomi Osaka advances against Elise Mertens. This market will resolve to 'Elise Mertens' if Elise Mertens advances against Naomi Osaka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Naomi Osaka enters this US Open third-round clash as the clear favorite against 23rd seed Elise Mertens, reflecting trader consensus around 70-75% implied probability driven by her 6-3 head-to-head edge, including straight-sets wins over Mertens on hard courts in Toronto and Bad Homburg earlier in 2026. The two-time US Open champion has advanced past tough opening matches against Anastasia Zakharova and Katerina Siniakova, showing improved fitness and ability to recover from set deficits while maintaining strong serving on the hard courts. Mertens, a consistent performer with deep runs in recent hard-court events and a solid second-round win over Maria Timofeeva, has reached the third round here multiple times but faces a significant barrier against Osaka's power and experience at Flushing Meadows. Recent form and surface history tilt heavily toward the higher-ranked Japanese player, though Mertens could capitalize on any unforced errors if Osaka's consistency dips again.