Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory
- Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%?<1¢
- Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 25–30%?<1¢
- Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 20–25%?<1¢
- Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 15–20%?<1¢
- Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 10–15%?<1¢
- Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 5–10%?<1¢
- Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 5%?<1¢
- Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary?99¢
- Will Mandela Barnes win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary?<1¢
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination in Wisconsin's August 11, 2026 gubernatorial primary through a narrow victory over state Rep. Francesca Hong, capturing roughly 39.8% of the vote to her 39.4% amid heavy early voting. Withdrawals by Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, and others left substantial "zombie votes" locked in for non-viable candidates, while Crowley's late re-entry, backed by Gov. Tony Evers, consolidated moderate support against Hong's progressive campaign. Late polling shifts and Hong's concession removed recount risks, driving trader consensus around Crowley's win. Remaining uncertainty centers on final certified margins and any procedural delays before official resolution.