Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory (0.2% Brackets)
- Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 1%?<1¢
- Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 0.8–1%?<1¢
- Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 0.6–0.8%?<1¢
- Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 0.2%?<1¢
- Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 0.2%?<1¢
- Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 0.4–0.6%?<1¢
- Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 0.2–0.4%?<1¢
- Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 2%?<1¢
- Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 0.2–0.4%?<1¢
- Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 0.4–0.6%?99¢
- Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 0.6–0.8%?<1¢
- Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 0.8–1%?<1¢
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
David Crowley secured the Wisconsin Democratic nomination for governor on August 11 with a margin of roughly 0.4 percentage points over state Rep. Francesca Hong, reflecting a late surge by the Milwaukee County executive that erased Hong’s double-digit polling lead. Traders priced the 0.4–0.6% bracket near certainty once county-level results and Hong’s concession confirmed the outcome would stay inside that narrow band. The race featured four other candidates who split remaining support, underscoring the two-way contest’s tightness. Final certification or any unforeseen tabulation adjustments remain the only realistic paths that could shift the exact bracket, though current vote totals place the result well inside the leading interval.