- Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?8¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast, (48.299654° N, 37.265129° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Russian forces have consolidated control over most of Myrnohrad in Donetsk Oblast amid sustained advances in the Pokrovsk direction, with Ukrainian units largely withdrawing from southern and central sectors earlier in 2026 after intense urban fighting and infiltration. Recent General Staff reports note heavy Russian assault activity near Pokrovsk, Bilytske, and adjacent settlements, supported by glide bombs and drones, while Ukrainian forces focus on positional defense and repelling incremental gains. Ukraine's counteroffensive successes in the Oleksandrivka direction liberated territory elsewhere but have not extended to the Myrnohrad-Pokrovsk agglomeration. Trader sentiment reflects the current frontline configuration, Russian logistical consolidation in captured areas, and the absence of announced Ukrainian plans or capabilities for an immediate counter-push into the city. Upcoming developments hinge on Russian offensive tempo and any Ukrainian resource reallocations within the resolution window.