Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by...?
- Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by October 31, 2026?19¢
- Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by December 31, 2026?30¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.662681° N, 36.253683° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Russian forces captured Huliaipole in January 2026 following months of grinding advances from September 2025, establishing control over the town and surrounding areas in Zaporizhzhia Oblast after intense urban fighting that left parts in a contested grey zone. Ukrainian units, including territorial defense brigades, faced severe manpower shortages and logistical strain during the defense, leading to withdrawals and Russian consolidation. Subsequent Ukrainian counterattacks in February 2026 regained limited settlements north of the town and elsewhere in the sector but did not restore positions inside Huliaipole itself. As of mid-2026, the front remains active with Russian pressure concentrated around Huliaipole, Pokrovsk, and Kostiantynivka amid broader positional fighting, while Ukrainian operations focus on disrupting logistics and stabilizing lines rather than urban re-entry. Trader sentiment reflects these battlefield realities, manpower dynamics, and the absence of major Ukrainian breakthroughs in the direction.