- Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by September 30?9¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Hryshyne, Donetsk Oblast, (48.326812° N, 37.081701° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Russian forces captured and consolidated control over Hryshyne, a village northwest of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, through sustained small-group infantry infiltrations and incremental assaults earlier in 2026. Ukrainian units from the 155th Mechanized Brigade and 7th Air Assault Corps conducted clearing operations and claimed to hold central and northern sectors amid heavy drone strikes and close-quarters fighting through March and April, but Russian pressure from Pokrovsk and surrounding axes prevented full Ukrainian re-entry. As of August 2026, the front remains fluid in the Pokrovsk direction with ongoing Russian infiltration attempts, while Ukraine’s main counteroffensive gains have occurred in the separate Oleksandrivka sector, liberating dozens of other settlements. Low trader probabilities for Ukrainian re-entry by near-term dates reflect the attritional nature of the fighting, Russian logistics in the area, and the absence of a concentrated Ukrainian offensive toward Hryshyne itself. Resolution depends on ISW map updates confirming any Ukrainian territorial control within the village boundaries.