Will Tropical Storm Lala make landfall in Hawaii as a hurricane?
- Will Tropical Storm Lala make landfall in Hawaii as a hurricane?33¢
This market will resolves "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lala makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and August 18, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued. A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lala must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Tropical Storm Lala does not strengthen to become a hurricane, this market resolves to "No". "Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument). The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs. This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lala's intensity downward at the time of landfall.
Recent National Hurricane Center forecasts indicate Tropical Storm Lala will pass just south of Hawaii’s Big Island on Saturday rather than making direct landfall, supporting the 64.5% market-implied odds favoring “No.” The system, currently at tropical storm strength near 17°N 152°W and moving west-northwest at 12 mph, is projected to reach hurricane intensity (sustained winds of at least 74 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale) as it approaches but remain offshore. Official advisories highlight hurricane conditions possible on the Big Island from proximity effects while emphasizing the track keeps the center south of land. This aligns with Hawaii’s historical rarity of direct hurricane landfalls—only two since 1950—and reflects updated model consensus on steering patterns. New NHC updates and satellite observations over the next 24–48 hours will clarify whether any last-minute northward shift alters the outcome.