Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?
- Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?>99¢
The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Political parties must file candidate registration applications with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) for the 2026 Brazil presidential election by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify. This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Workers' Party formally nominated incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its 2026 presidential candidate during a national convention on August 2, confirming his bid for a fourth term well ahead of the August 15 deadline. This official party action, reported across major outlets, established the outcome under standard nomination procedures and aligned with Lula's prior announcements of intent to seek re-election. Trader consensus reflects the completed convention process and absence of any active disputes over eligibility or timing. While the implied probability stands at 99.5% for a yes resolution, late procedural challenges, internal party reversals, or unforeseen legal interventions before the cutoff remain theoretically possible, though no such developments have surfaced in recent days.