- Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by December 31, 2026?45¢
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date. A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”. The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies. Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Trader consensus shows a narrow edge for no change (52.5% implied probability) because the Climate Clock’s 1.5 °C deadline—currently projected in the late 2020s to 2030—relies on annual or periodic updates to global CO₂ emissions trends and the remaining carbon budget from sources like the Global Carbon Project. Recent observational data confirm 2024 as the first calendar year exceeding 1.5 °C in multiple datasets, while 2025 temperatures dipped below due to La Niña transition, leaving the long-term 20–30-year average still approaching but not yet crossing the threshold. Key uncertainties include internal variability (e.g., potential strong El Niño in 2026 adding 0.1–0.2 °C temporarily), revisions to historical warming estimates, TCRE values, non-CO₂ forcings, and zero-emissions commitment, which can shift the budget by years. New emissions inventories, updated model runs, or major carbon-budget reports released before year-end could alter the displayed deadline, while steady trends without significant revisions would keep it unchanged.