- Will Tesla perform another live stunt with the Roadster by December 31, 2026?9¢9%
- Will Tesla perform another live stunt with the Roadster by April 30, 2027?31¢31%
Tesla’s recent October 15, 2026, live demonstration at SpaceX’s McGregor site featured the next-generation Roadster executing multiple verified aerial maneuvers—including a ramp-driven upside-down hold via suction fans, a mid-air kickflip over other Tesla vehicles, and a stationary corkscrew—using cold-gas thrusters developed with SpaceX. This event, conducted before an in-person audience to counter AI-generation concerns, directly supports trader views on the company’s willingness to stage further public stunts ahead of the 2028 production start. Key variables include the invite-only “Rocket” variant’s non-road-legal flight system, potential appearances at future Tesla or SpaceX events, and historical patterns of prototype showcases preceding limited deliveries.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any live, in-person demonstration or event held by Tesla, a version of the Roadster (including a prototype or other non-final version) that is physically present performs any maneuver in which the vehicle is in motion and its cold gas thrusters, fan/suction system, or other similar onboard propulsion or ground-sealing system are activated and in use, in any capacity, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The vehicle does not need to become airborne, reach any particular speed, or achieve any specific outcome for this market to resolve "Yes" — any live use of the cold gas thrusters, fan/suction system, or similar system while the car is moving (e.g., to jump, spin, hover, lift, drift, or otherwise maneuver) qualifies, regardless of how minor or brief. The primary resolution source for this market will be video of the qualifying event, including any official Tesla livestream. Official Tesla statements or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to resolve this market, provided they establish that a live demonstration met the conditions above.