Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?
- Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?17¢
- Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?11¢
- Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?7¢
- Will at least 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?5¢
- Will at least 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?3¢
- Will at least 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?<1¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and an active blockade have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at multi-month lows, with daily crossings averaging just 5-14 vessels in early August versus the pre-conflict baseline of 130-plus, according to Kpler and AIS data. This sharp contraction directly elevates war-risk insurance premiums, widens tanker charter rates, and supports elevated global crude benchmarks by constraining roughly one-quarter of seaborne oil flows. Trader sentiment on threshold markets reflects limited near-term recovery, as sporadic passages involve only smaller or non-Western operators while major energy companies await clearer de-escalation. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing Oman-mediated talks and any potential easing of U.S. enforcement before the August 31 resolution window, which could shift implied probabilities if daily volumes rebound toward 30-40 vessels.