- Will Russia target Kyiv on August 13, 2026?<1¢
- Will Russia target Kyiv on August 14, 2026?<1¢
- Will Russia target Kyiv on August 15, 2026?<1¢
- Will Russia target Kyiv on August 17, 2026?<1¢
- Will Russia target Kyiv on August 19, 2026?>99¢
- Will Russia target Kyiv on August 21, 2026?28¢
- Will Russia target Kyiv on August 22, 2026?33¢
- Will Russia target Kyiv on August 23, 2026?56¢
- Will Russia target Kyiv on August 24, 2026?59¢
- Will Russia target Kyiv on August 25, 2026?50¢
- Will Russia target Kyiv on August 26, 2026?38¢
- Will Russia target Kyiv on August 27, 2026?36¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Kyiv if it targets any location within the city of Kyiv. The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.
Russia continues periodic ballistic missile and drone strikes on Kyiv and surrounding areas, exploiting Ukraine’s strained air defenses as the full-scale invasion enters its fifth year. Major attacks in early August 2026 killed at least 17 people and damaged civilian and energy infrastructure, following similar large-scale barrages in July and May that targeted military production sites and exposed gaps in interceptor supplies. Ukrainian officials have repeatedly appealed for additional Patriot systems and munitions. Trader assessments reflect the established Russian operational pattern of striking the capital during periods of intensified fighting, though any market resolution hinges on verifiable confirmation of qualifying military actions within the specified timeframe.