- Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?83¢
- Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31?70¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Dobropillia by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Dobropillia is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Russian forces continue offensive operations in the Dobropillia direction of Donetsk Oblast as part of broader efforts to advance on Pokrovsk and surrounding areas, with geolocated reports showing incremental gains to within roughly 7 kilometers of the city amid heavy use of glide bombs, artillery, and drones. Ukrainian units have repeatedly repelled large-scale mechanized assaults, including a July 2026 attempt involving dozens of armored vehicles that resulted in significant Russian equipment losses. Prior 2025 Russian gains east and southeast of Dobropillia were reversed by Ukrainian counteroperations. Trader sentiment on entry by year-end deadlines reflects the pace of these attritional advances against Ukrainian defensive reinforcements, with market pricing incorporating uncertainty over whether intensified Russian pressure can overcome prepared positions before seasonal or logistical constraints intervene.