Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by...?
- Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by September 30, 2026?16¢
- Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by December 31, 2026?46¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the railroad station (50.335310° N, 36.195107° E) located in Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv Oblast, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+1.png Location in Kozacha Lopan: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+2.png Kozacha Lopan Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+3.png Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/A6sTS2Tt34c8LWv66 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Russian forces have conducted repeated infiltration missions and small-scale assaults toward Kozacha Lopan in northern Kharkiv Oblast since late June 2026, crossing near Hraniv and operating within 2 km of the border. Ukrainian units have repelled most attempts through strikes on Russian positions in the central, eastern, and southern parts of the settlement, maintaining defensive lines amid unstable frontline conditions. Drone activity, including strikes injuring civilians, continues alongside efforts to install electronic warfare repeaters. The area functions as a contested gray zone with no confirmed large-scale Russian advances or capture as of mid-August 2026. Russian activity here appears aimed at pinning Ukrainian forces while broader Kharkiv operations remain limited. Upcoming developments hinge on any escalation in border crossings or Ukrainian reinforcements that could shift control before market resolution deadlines.