Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
- Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?14¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify. For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe. Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity. Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Diplomatic tensions with Israel persist amid ongoing regional conflicts, yet no country has expelled an Israeli ambassador since early 2026 actions such as South Africa's removal of a chargé d'affaires. Recent moves, including Spain's permanent withdrawal of its own envoy to Israel in March over disputes involving Iran and Gaza, reflect targeted signaling rather than reciprocal expulsions. Calls from Iranian officials offering incentives for such steps have not produced follow-through from Arab or European states, and parliamentary proposals elsewhere remain non-binding. With roughly four months left in the resolution window, the absence of fresh catalysts or coordinated diplomatic breaks supports trader consensus around an 85% probability that no expulsion occurs by December 31.