- Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?27¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Saudi Arabia continues to condition any normalization with Israel on concrete progress toward a Palestinian state, a stance reinforced amid ongoing regional tensions and recent U.S. efforts to link nuclear cooperation to Abraham Accords accession. Syria's new leadership has explicitly ruled out joining, citing distinct bilateral issues with Israel, while Lebanon faces internal constraints tied to Hezbollah. Kazakhstan's 2025 accession and Somaliland's pledge mark recent expansions, yet no additional Arab or Muslim-majority states have advanced to formal agreement despite U.S. diplomatic pressure. With only months remaining before 2027, these structural barriers and the absence of breakthrough diplomatic announcements sustain trader expectations that no new country will sign in the near term.