- Will Gregory Katsas be the next Supreme Court nominee?32¢32%
- Will Ted Cruz be the next Supreme Court nominee?25¢25%
- Will James Ho be the next Supreme Court nominee?25¢25%
- Will Aileen Cannon be the next Supreme Court nominee?19¢19%
- Will Steven Menashi be the next Supreme Court nominee?16¢16%
- Will Patrick Bumatay be the next Supreme Court nominee?16¢16%
- Will Amul Thapar be the next Supreme Court nominee?16¢16%
- Will Andrew Oldham be the next Supreme Court nominee?8¢8%
- Will Neomi Rao be the next Supreme Court nominee?8¢8%
- Will Mike Lee be the next Supreme Court nominee?8¢8%
- Will John Sauer be the next Supreme Court nominee?4¢4%
The tight spread among potential nominees reflects the absence of an announced Supreme Court vacancy and the broad pool of federal appellate judges whose records align with administration priorities on originalism, textualism, and constitutional restraint. Traders assign James Ho the highest implied probability at roughly 40 percent, followed by other circuit judges and senators, because no single candidate has secured consistent signals from the White House or Senate leadership. Confirmation dynamics hinge on Republican Senate margins, committee scheduling, and any blue-slip or hold procedures. Separation could occur through a justice’s retirement or death, public statements from the president or key senators, or leaks about shortlists that shift focus among the competing names before formal nomination.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.