Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
- Will ByteDance be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?21¢
- Will Xiaomi be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?30¢
- Will DeepSeek be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?22¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is added to the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying addition occurs when the specified company that was unnamed in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying addition must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of addition. Addition of a subsidiary or parent company of the specified company will qualify. An addition will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the company is added but its status is unenforced, the addition will still qualify. If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).
The June 2026 update to the DoD’s Section 1260H list added 65 entities—including major technology firms such as Alibaba, Baidu, BYD, NIO, WuXi AppTec, Unitree Robotics, and RoboSense—reflecting expanded scrutiny of companies tied to China’s military-civil fusion strategy in artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, semiconductors, and electric vehicles. This broadens the list beyond traditional defense contractors into consumer-facing tech platforms and advanced hardware developers. With the next annual update expected in early 2027 ahead of the June 30, 2027 cutoff, trader focus centers on firms demonstrating dual-use capabilities in large language models, robotics, or supply-chain links to the People’s Liberation Army. Heightened U.S.-China regulatory friction and congressional pressure on emerging technologies could accelerate further designations, while any diplomatic easing or narrow DoD interpretations might limit additions.