- Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?74¢74%
- Will the Green Party (MP) be in the next Swedish government?70¢70%
- Will the Centre Party (C) be in the next Swedish government?54¢54%
- Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government?47¢47%
- Will the Moderate Party (M) be in the next Swedish government?24¢24%
- Will the Christian Democrats (KD) be in the next Swedish government?24¢24%
- Will the Liberals (L) be in the next Swedish government?22¢22%
- Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government?12¢12%
- Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) be in the next Swedish government?2¢2%
The September 2026 Swedish election produced a hung parliament, with the red-green opposition bloc (Social Democrats, Left Party, Greens, Centre Party) securing 176 seats to the Tidö parties' 173. Social Democrats remain the largest party at 28 percent, followed by Moderates and Sweden Democrats. Multiple prime minister proposals have failed, including Magdalena Andersson and a cross-bloc option led by Centre Party leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist. As of early November, Speaker Andreas Norlén has tasked Moderate leader Ulf Kristersson with exploring government formation by November 10. Recent post-election polls show Moderates gaining ground while Liberals hover near the 4 percent threshold, underscoring bloc tensions, Centre Party resistance to Left Party cabinet roles, and the risk of prolonged negotiations or a snap election.
Rules
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.