- Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?91¢
- Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government?9¢
- Will the Moderate Party (M) be in the next Swedish government?22¢
- Will the Centre Party (C) be in the next Swedish government?54¢
- Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government?55¢
- Will the Christian Democrats (KD) be in the next Swedish government?22¢
- Will the Green Party (MP) be in the next Swedish government?86¢
- Will the Liberals (L) be in the next Swedish government?15¢
- Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) be in the next Swedish government?4¢
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.
Sweden's parliamentary election on 13 September 2026 will determine the composition of the next government and prime minister through Riksdag seat allocation and subsequent coalition negotiations. Recent polling shows the centre-left opposition bloc led by the Social Democrats holding a consistent lead over the incumbent Tidö arrangement of Moderates, Christian Democrats, and Liberals, which relies on Sweden Democrats support. Key issues shaping voter sentiment include gang violence, immigration policy, economic pressures, energy supply, and national security. The fragmented multi-party system typically requires cross-bloc agreements or confidence-and-supply arrangements, with post-election bargaining likely to focus on policy concessions in crime reduction and integration. No snap election has been called, keeping the fixed timeline as the primary driver of market expectations.