- Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?93¢
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?1¢
- Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?1¢
- Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?3¢
- Will Dune: Messiah have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?5¢
- Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Toy Story 5’s record $160 million domestic opening—the year’s second-highest and the largest animated debut—has cemented overwhelming trader consensus around its third-place finish among 2026 opening weekends. Strong family appeal, 92-94% critical and audience scores, and franchise goodwill drove the June launch past The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $132 million mark, leaving limited room for later releases to slot between Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s $360 million benchmark and Toy Story 5’s total. Upcoming tentpoles such as Avengers: Doomsday and Dune: Messiah would need unprecedented tracking shifts or marketing surges to displace it, though a late-summer or holiday surprise from an unheralded title remains a narrow path to an upset.