Which movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
- Will Toy Story 5 have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?<1¢
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?35¢
- Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?<1¢
- Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?66¢
- Will Dune: Messiah have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Avengers: Doomsday leads trader sentiment for the second-biggest 2026 opening weekend at 66% implied probability, driven by its positioning as a major MCU tentpole with Robert Downey Jr. returning, a December 18 holiday release slot, and massive pre-sales momentum that aligns with historical Avengers performance patterns. Spider-Man: Brand New Day sits at 34.5% after its record July debut of roughly $360 million domestic, which has already locked in the likely top spot and shifted focus to December competition. The cluster of outcomes at 50% reflects broad uncertainty around mid-year and fall releases, while Toy Story 5, The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping, and Dune: Messiah remain at 0.1% due to more modest tracking and less favorable release windows relative to superhero scale. Upcoming holiday tracking updates and marketing surges represent the next key catalysts that could shift these aggregated trader odds.