- Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by December 31, 2026?21¢21%
- Will Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by December 31, 2026?18¢18%
- Will Cboe Futures Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by December 31, 2026?10¢10%
- Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by December 31, 2026?5¢5%
CFTC Staff Letter 26-22, issued July 24, 2026, has become the dominant factor shaping trader views by directing designated contract markets away from broad template self-certifications under § 40.2(a) and toward narrower class filings under § 40.2(d) or full review under § 40.3. These require a referenced prior contract with identical settlement sources, formulas, and methodologies, limiting bulk listings of sports outcomes. Compliant activity has continued, including Gemini Titan’s September and October NFL overtime and period-lead series, DKeX’s August football contract bundle, and NADEX’s October incentive program for sports markets. With the NFL season underway and high event-contract volumes, additional targeted filings from active DCMs such as Kalshi, Gemini Titan, and DKeX remain the key swing factor through year-end.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed Designated Contract Market (DCM) self-certifies sports-related event-based contracts with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official information released by the CFTC or the respective DCM; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.