- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027?9¢
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?18¢
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?33¢
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027?8¢
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027?9¢
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?14¢
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?12¢
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?11¢
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Australia" before 2027?13¢
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027?13¢
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?7¢
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Israel" before 2027?17¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trump’s second-term tariff actions and reciprocal trade framework have accelerated bilateral negotiations, yielding finalized or implemented deals with the UK (May 2025 Economic Prosperity Deal), Japan (2025 strategic agreement), India (February 2026 interim deal), Indonesia (February 2026 reciprocal trade pact), Argentina, Bangladesh, and the EU (framework advanced to implementation in mid-2026). These outcomes reflect trading partners’ responses to baseline tariff threats, often including market-access concessions and investment commitments. The administration’s 2026 agenda emphasizes converting additional frameworks with partners such as South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, and Ecuador into binding arrangements while reviewing USMCA and managing China trade. With roughly four months remaining before 2027, ongoing talks and scheduled reviews create scope for further agreements, though timelines depend on congressional procedures, partner approvals, and any late-stage adjustments.