- Does Ox Alpha belong to Meta?<1¢
- Does Ox Alpha belong to Google?6¢
- Does Ox Alpha belong to Alibaba?<1¢
- Does Ox Alpha belong to Moonshot AI?<1¢
- Does Ox Alpha belong to OpenAI?<1¢
- Does Ox Alpha belong to Cursor (Anysphere)?3¢
- Does Ox Alpha belong to Baidu?<1¢
- Does Ox Alpha belong to Anthropic?<1¢
- Does Ox Alpha belong to Zhipu AI (Z.ai)?84¢
- Does Ox Alpha belong to Xiaomi?1¢
- Does Ox Alpha belong to xAI?<1¢
- Does Ox Alpha belong to DeepSeek?<1¢
Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation. This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements. A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks. If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”. If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Z.ai leads trader consensus at 83.5% implied probability because recent analysis of Ox Alpha’s tokenizer behavior and output patterns closely matches Zhipu AI’s GLM-5 series, following the lab’s prior anonymous “Pony Alpha” testing on OpenRouter. The model’s surprise debut as a free, high-context reasoning system for coding and agentic workloads has fueled speculation about a Chinese stealth release, with no official attribution yet. Western labs such as Google, xAI, OpenAI, and Anthropic sit below 6% as traders see no matching signatures or leaks tying them to the launch. The market reflects real-money bets on unconfirmed origins while awaiting any developer statements or capability benchmarks that could shift positioning.