- Will Chicago, IL face tornado risk on August 30?<1¢
- Will Houston, TX face tornado risk on August 30?<1¢
- Will San Antonio, TX face tornado risk on August 30?<1¢
- Will Dallas, TX face tornado risk on August 30?<1¢
- Will Austin, TX face tornado risk on August 30?<1¢
- Will Fort Worth, TX face tornado risk on August 30?<1¢
- Will Columbus, OH face tornado risk on August 30?<1¢
- Will Charlotte, NC face tornado risk on August 30?<1¢
- Will Indianapolis, IN face tornado risk on August 30?<1¢
- Will Denver, CO face tornado risk on August 30?<1¢
- Will Nashville, TN face tornado risk on August 30?<1¢
- Will Oklahoma City, OK face tornado risk on August 30?<1¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that falls within a tornado probability area rated ≥2% in the NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook on August 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook assigns tornado probability percentages (2%, 5%, 10%, etc.) to geographic areas across the US. If a city's coordinates fall inside any area rated 2% or higher, that city resolves "Yes". If a city is outside all tornado probability areas, or only within areas rated below 2%, that city resolves "No". The SPC outlook is published as machine-readable geographic data (GeoJSON) at spc.noaa.gov. Each city's coordinates and the polygon boundaries are publicly verifiable. Borderline cases can be independently confirmed using the polygon data (excluding the hatched SIGN overlay, which is not a probability rating) and the city's listed coordinates. The point-in-polygon test is performed on unprojected WGS84 (EPSG:4326) coordinates, which is the native coordinate system of the SPC GeoJSON data. Resolution is based on the scheduled 01:00 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook update issued on the following UTC calendar day. The SPC Day 1 outlook covers a 24-hour period from 12:00 UTC to 12:00 UTC the following day. Subsequent revisions published after that scheduled update will not be considered. If the SPC outlook is not published or is unavailable, the market remains open until data is available. The resolution source for this market is the NOAA Storm Prediction Center at spc.noaa.gov.
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center outlooks issued on August 30, 2026, placed a 2% tornado probability across portions of central and western North Dakota, encompassing Bismarck, Minot, Mandan, Jamestown, and nearby communities, amid a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. A strong upper-level trough and associated cold front drove organized convection, with sufficient low-level moisture, steep lapse rates, and deep-layer shear favoring rotating storms or landspouts. Official reports later confirmed at least one tornado (likely a landspout) near Zap/Beulah in Mercer County. Marginal severe risks extended into adjacent areas of the northern Plains and High Plains, but tornado probabilities remained negligible outside the primary ND corridor. Resolution hinges on verified National Weather Service tornado reports and damage surveys for the 24-hour period ending 12 UTC August 31.