- Will Louisville, KY face tornado risk on August 25?<1¢
- Will Atlanta, GA face tornado risk on August 25?<1¢
- Will Kansas City, MO face tornado risk on August 25?<1¢
- Will Omaha, NE face tornado risk on August 25?<1¢
- Will Minneapolis, MN face tornado risk on August 25?<1¢
- Will Wichita, KS face tornado risk on August 25?<1¢
- Will New Orleans, LA face tornado risk on August 25?2¢
- Will Tampa, FL face tornado risk on August 25?<1¢
- Will St. Louis, MO face tornado risk on August 25?<1¢
- Will Birmingham, AL face tornado risk on August 25?<1¢
- Will Des Moines, IA face tornado risk on August 25?<1¢
- Will Little Rock, AR face tornado risk on August 25?<1¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that falls within a tornado probability area rated ≥2% in the NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook on August 25, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook assigns tornado probability percentages (2%, 5%, 10%, etc.) to geographic areas across the US. If a city's coordinates fall inside any area rated 2% or higher, that city resolves "Yes". If a city is outside all tornado probability areas, or only within areas rated below 2%, that city resolves "No". The SPC outlook is published as machine-readable geographic data (GeoJSON) at spc.noaa.gov. Each city's coordinates and the polygon boundaries are publicly verifiable. Borderline cases can be independently confirmed using the polygon data (excluding the hatched SIGN overlay, which is not a probability rating) and the city's listed coordinates. The point-in-polygon test is performed on unprojected WGS84 (EPSG:4326) coordinates, which is the native coordinate system of the SPC GeoJSON data. Resolution is based on the scheduled 01:00 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook update issued on the following UTC calendar day. The SPC Day 1 outlook covers a 24-hour period from 12:00 UTC to 12:00 UTC the following day. Subsequent revisions published after that scheduled update will not be considered. If the SPC outlook is not published or is unavailable, the market remains open until data is available. The resolution source for this market is the NOAA Storm Prediction Center at spc.noaa.gov.
Storm Prediction Center outlooks issued for August 25, 2026, placed the highest tornado probabilities at just 2 percent across limited areas of eastern Minnesota, northwest Wisconsin, and parts of the northern Plains, including Duluth and the Minneapolis-St. Paul metro. Enhanced and slight severe risks focused instead on damaging winds and large hail, driven by a cold front interacting with moderate instability and northwesterly flow aloft over the central and southern High Plains, plus an isolated pulse-storm environment farther south. An actual tornado touched down briefly in Hays County, Texas, early that morning amid heavy rain, but broader activity remained isolated with no organized outbreak. Traders weighed these low probabilities and sparse confirmed reports against historical late-August patterns favoring wind-dominant events when assessing city-specific resolution criteria.