- Will Chicago, IL face tornado risk on August 24?<1¢
- Will Houston, TX face tornado risk on August 24?2¢
- Will San Antonio, TX face tornado risk on August 24?2¢
- Will Dallas, TX face tornado risk on August 24?<1¢
- Will Austin, TX face tornado risk on August 24?2¢
- Will Fort Worth, TX face tornado risk on August 24?<1¢
- Will Columbus, OH face tornado risk on August 24?1¢
- Will Charlotte, NC face tornado risk on August 24?4¢
- Will Indianapolis, IN face tornado risk on August 24?4¢
- Will Denver, CO face tornado risk on August 24?4¢
- Will Nashville, TN face tornado risk on August 24?2¢
- Will Oklahoma City, OK face tornado risk on August 24?1¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that falls within a tornado probability area rated ≥2% in the NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook on August 24, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook assigns tornado probability percentages (2%, 5%, 10%, etc.) to geographic areas across the US. If a city's coordinates fall inside any area rated 2% or higher, that city resolves "Yes". If a city is outside all tornado probability areas, or only within areas rated below 2%, that city resolves "No". The SPC outlook is published as machine-readable geographic data (GeoJSON) at spc.noaa.gov. Each city's coordinates and the polygon boundaries are publicly verifiable. Borderline cases can be independently confirmed using the polygon data (excluding the hatched SIGN overlay, which is not a probability rating) and the city's listed coordinates. The point-in-polygon test is performed on unprojected WGS84 (EPSG:4326) coordinates, which is the native coordinate system of the SPC GeoJSON data. Resolution is based on the scheduled 01:00 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook update issued on the following UTC calendar day. The SPC Day 1 outlook covers a 24-hour period from 12:00 UTC to 12:00 UTC the following day. Subsequent revisions published after that scheduled update will not be considered. If the SPC outlook is not published or is unavailable, the market remains open until data is available. The resolution source for this market is the NOAA Storm Prediction Center at spc.noaa.gov.
The Storm Prediction Center's August 24, 2026, Day 1 Convective Outlook identified a slight risk of severe thunderstorms, including isolated tornadoes, across parts of Louisiana and Alabama, with New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Mobile, and Metairie in the risk area due to moderate instability, sufficient low-level shear, and favorable moisture. Marginal risk extended to locations such as Jacksonville, Denver, and Salt Lake City amid weaker parameters. These assessments draw from observed soundings, model consensus on CAPE and helicity values, and historical climatology for late-August Gulf Coast and High Plains activity. Traders monitoring SPC updates, NWS warnings, and real-time radar should note that actual tornado reports often verify lower than outlook probabilities, with verification data typically released days later.