- Will Chicago, IL face tornado risk on August 22?0¢
- Will Houston, TX face tornado risk on August 22?0¢
- Will San Antonio, TX face tornado risk on August 22?0¢
- Will Dallas, TX face tornado risk on August 22?0¢
- Will Austin, TX face tornado risk on August 22?0¢
- Will Fort Worth, TX face tornado risk on August 22?0¢
- Will Columbus, OH face tornado risk on August 22?0¢
- Will Charlotte, NC face tornado risk on August 22?0¢
- Will Indianapolis, IN face tornado risk on August 22?0¢
- Will Denver, CO face tornado risk on August 22?0¢
- Will Nashville, TN face tornado risk on August 22?0¢
- Will Oklahoma City, OK face tornado risk on August 22?0¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that falls within a tornado probability area rated ≥2% in the NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook on August 22, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook assigns tornado probability percentages (2%, 5%, 10%, etc.) to geographic areas across the US. If a city's coordinates fall inside any area rated 2% or higher, that city resolves "Yes". If a city is outside all tornado probability areas, or only within areas rated below 2%, that city resolves "No". The SPC outlook is published as machine-readable geographic data (GeoJSON) at spc.noaa.gov. Each city's coordinates and the polygon boundaries are publicly verifiable. Borderline cases can be independently confirmed using the polygon data (excluding the hatched SIGN overlay, which is not a probability rating) and the city's listed coordinates. The point-in-polygon test is performed on unprojected WGS84 (EPSG:4326) coordinates, which is the native coordinate system of the SPC GeoJSON data. Resolution is based on the scheduled 01:00 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook update issued on the following UTC calendar day. The SPC Day 1 outlook covers a 24-hour period from 12:00 UTC to 12:00 UTC the following day. Subsequent revisions published after that scheduled update will not be considered. If the SPC outlook is not published or is unavailable, the market remains open until data is available. The resolution source for this market is the NOAA Storm Prediction Center at spc.noaa.gov.
The NOAA Storm Prediction Center's convective outlook for August 22, 2026, highlighted only marginal severe weather risk with tornado probabilities at or below 2% in limited zones, primarily driving trader consensus toward lower odds for widespread city-specific tornado threats. A modest setup of instability and shear supported scattered thunderstorms capable of hail or damaging winds across the Upper Ohio Valley, Lower Great Lakes, and parts of the Northwest, consistent with typical late-summer patterns rather than high-end outbreak conditions. Official monitoring emphasized that any tornado risk would depend on localized supercell development, with real-time model runs and radar data releases from SPC and NWS offices serving as key update points before resolution.