This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no meeting takes place by December 31 ET, this market will resolve to "No meeting before 2027". A meeting is defined as any encounter where Zelenskyy and Putin are both present and interact with each other in person. For the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Persistent Russian insistence on expert-level preparatory negotiations and fulfillment of core territorial and security demands before any leader-level engagement has kept direct Zelenskyy-Putin talks off the immediate agenda. Recent exchanges, including Zelenskyy’s June 2026 open letter proposing a neutral-third-country summit and Putin’s prompt rejection citing “no point” without prior framework agreements, reinforced trader expectations that bilateral meetings remain unlikely through 2026. Lower-level U.S.-facilitated contacts and limited ceasefires have produced minimal movement on key sticking points. A commanding probability of no meeting before 2027 reflects these structural barriers, though a sudden battlefield shift, U.S. diplomatic breakthrough, or revised Russian posture could still alter timelines.