- Will it rain in New York, NY on August 31?>99¢
- Will it rain in Los Angeles, CA on August 31?4¢
- Will it rain in Chicago, IL on August 31?>99¢
- Will it rain in Houston, TX on August 31?96¢
- Will it rain in Dallas, TX on August 31?3¢
- Will it rain in Phoenix, AZ on August 31?>99¢
- Will it rain in Philadelphia, PA on August 31?50¢
- Will it rain in Denver, CO on August 31?3¢
- Will it rain in Washington, DC on August 31?50¢
- Will it rain in Atlanta, GA on August 31?4¢
- Will it rain in Boston, MA on August 31?4¢
- Will it rain in San Francisco, CA on August 31?4¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records measurable precipitation on August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the PRECIPITATION (IN) figure in the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the city's station. A report of trace ("T") does not qualify. The PRECIPITATION (IN) figure measures total liquid-equivalent precipitation and does not distinguish between precipitation types. The observation period is the NWS climate day for each station: midnight to midnight local standard time. The final CLI report for a climate day is issued the following morning. Each city is an independent market. Any number of cities may resolve "Yes", including all of them or none of them. This market will resolve according to the NWS Daily Climate Report as published by 2:00 PM ET on the day following the observation date. If multiple versions of the report are issued, the last version published before that time governs. If no figure has been published by that time, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for each city's station.
Weather patterns on August 31, 2026, hinged on short-term atmospheric dynamics including moisture transport, frontal boundaries, and upper-level troughs or ridges that steered precipitation. Authoritative guidance from the National Weather Service and NOAA forecast models, updated through the preceding 48 hours, shaped trader assessments of rain likelihood in specific regions by highlighting variables such as precipitable water values, CAPE for convective potential, and steering winds. Historical climatology for late summer provided baseline context on typical shower or thunderstorm frequency, while real-time radar and gauge data post-event offered resolution criteria for markets tied to measurable precipitation thresholds. Any final model runs or observational adjustments from agencies like the NWS would have refined probabilities right up to market close.