- Will it rain in Boston, MA on August 24?44¢
- Will it rain in New York, NY on August 24?50¢
- Will it rain in Los Angeles, CA on August 24?1¢
- Will it rain in Chicago, IL on August 24?10¢
- Will it rain in Houston, TX on August 24?1¢
- Will it rain in Dallas, TX on August 24?1¢
- Will it rain in Phoenix, AZ on August 24?>99¢
- Will it rain in Philadelphia, PA on August 24?<1¢
- Will it rain in Denver, CO on August 24?98¢
- Will it rain in Washington, DC on August 24?50¢
- Will it rain in Atlanta, GA on August 24?49¢
- Will it rain in Seattle, WA on August 24?4¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records measurable precipitation on August 24, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the PRECIPITATION (IN) figure in the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the city's station. A report of trace ("T") does not qualify. The PRECIPITATION (IN) figure measures total liquid-equivalent precipitation and does not distinguish between precipitation types. The observation period is the NWS climate day for each station: midnight to midnight local standard time. The final CLI report for a climate day is issued the following morning. Each city is an independent market. Any number of cities may resolve "Yes", including all of them or none of them. Resolution is based on the station's first published precipitation figure for the day. Subsequent revisions or corrections to the published data will not be considered; the first published value is final. If no figure has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for each city's station.
Recent National Weather Service and Weather Prediction Center model runs highlighted enhanced monsoon moisture transport into the Southwest on August 24, 2026, with the GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing a favorable steering pattern for afternoon thunderstorms over central Arizona. This aligned with climatological peaks in the North American monsoon, when Phoenix typically records measurable precipitation on roughly 40% of late-August days. Official outlooks noted slight excessive rainfall risk east of the Rockies and localized activity along the Atlantic coast, but consensus pointed to the highest probability of gauge-measurable rain (>0.01 inch) in the Phoenix area. Traders priced Phoenix near 98% implied probability as short-range radar and updated model guidance confirmed convective initiation, with resolution tied to NOAA station data at Sky Harbor. New daily QPF updates and post-event gauge reports will finalize outcomes.