- Will the median home value in NYC be between $555,000 and $582,000 on September 30?<1¢
- Will the median home value in NYC be between $636,000 and $663,000 on September 30?24¢
- Will the median home value in NYC be at least $689,000 on September 30?41¢
- Will the median home value in NYC be between $609,000 and $636,000 on September 30?5¢
- Will the median home value in NYC be less than $555,000 on September 30?<1¢
- Will the median home value in NYC be between $663,000 and $689,000 on September 30?30¢
- Will the median home value in NYC be between $582,000 and $609,000 on September 30?1¢
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in New York City, New York on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for New York City (Parcl_ID: 5372594). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1000 square feet, which is the median home size in New York City. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/50)
Persistent low housing inventory and resilient buyer demand continue to anchor NYC median home values near recent peaks, with July 2026 sale prices reported between $799,000 and $907,000 across major trackers and Zillow’s typical value at $833,000. Limited supply—down year-over-year in multiple reports—has sustained upward price pressure despite elevated mortgage rates and seasonal softening in transaction volume. Trader positioning favoring the $689K+ bucket reflects these fundamentals, as does the thin probability mass below $636K. Key near-term catalysts include August–September sales data and any shifts in local listing activity or jumbo mortgage costs ahead of the September 30 resolution.